we both noted example that george w. bush. he won. do we have evidence that an october surprise really swayed -- sways voters to? >> guest: eyesight a couple of examples in that article. it's not necessarily the presidential level but let's take a look at some of the races farther down about happening around the country right now. in indiana, the senate candidate richard mourdock looked like he was slightly ahead of democrats joe donnelly going into the final debate between the two men. in that debate, mourdock made some comments about rape that were taken, well, that were able to be used in a democratic campaign ad. those comments have dominated the state's political coverage for the last couple of days. and by the way, it has sunk murdochs coldly. now donnelley leads in that race according to internal polls from both sides. so what i think we saw there was a real moment in which a last second sort of declaration by candidate, a big mistake, comment and a dover surprise if you want, a self inflicted october surprise changed the race.